Sunday, July 27, 2008

WTO MEET BUILDS BRIDGE TO US, EU FOR INDIAN PROS

Amiti Sen & Sheila Mathrani, Geneva, July 28, 2008
The Economic Times (Delhi edition)

Contractual service providers and independent professionals from India may have easier access to the EU and the US if the two translate the signals made by them at the ongoing mini-ministerial meet of the World Trade Organization (WTO) into serious offers.

While the EU proposed replacing the restrictive regime of economic needs test and labour market test with a fixed annual quota for professionals, the US said the administration was willing to address issues related to additional concessions in the movement of workers and professionals with the Congress, trade diplomats said.

On its part, India has indicated it could take on more commitments at the multinational level in the area of opening up its telecom and courier services and, to some extent, certain parts of its financial services by relaxing foreign equity caps. The country’s levels of commitments in services at WTO made during the previous Uruguay round are lower than the existing levels of openness in the country.

After the conference, commerce and industry minister Kamal Nath said there was a good movement by the US and EU. “They have offered to do some bindings in contractual service supplies and independent professionals, which is a constructive sign. We have made substantial offers in many areas. Obviously, our offers are subject to what we get,” he said.

According to commerce secretary G K Pillai, the EU offer was more specific. “They have put a quota system and have removed the economic needs test,” he said. The economic needs test is a non-tariff barrier which requires that it be proved that the economy of the country to which a worker is travelling to for providing services really requires his/her services. Trade diplomats said the EU has proposed it could replace the test with a quota of 80,000 professionals every year. The proposed quota is much higher than the US quota of 60,000 professionals.

The EU too seems happy with the indications given by India in the conference. EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson told media after the session that there had been ‘some interesting’ offers from India and China. “I heard some interesting signals from India, and a couple of things from China, one in particular that I want to specify, to follow up,” he said.

The US said its Mode 4 (movement of workers, professionals and others) commitments could be enhanced by applying it to all sectors on which it is giving offers and an expansion of the list of such sectors. It added it would discuss the issue of additional concessions in Mode 4 with the Congress.

 

IT COMPANIES GUN FOR COVER AFTER BLASTS

PP Thimmaya, Bangalore, July 28, 2008
The Economic Times

Apprehension, rather than panic, appears to best characterise the mood of corporates in India’s technology capital after the explosion of eight small bombs on Friday shook Bangalore last.

Home to some of the world’s largest technology firms and employing some five lakh people in the IT services sector, the Bangalore blasts have attracted global attention and thrown up questions about vulnerability of city to similar incidents in the future. Top IT companies that ET spoke to say there is no panic, but they are keenly watching how the government reacts to the situation and looking for assurances that security will be a top priority.

At the same time, technology firms say they are now going to be more focussed on business risk mitigation plans to keep operations running in case of disruptions. In the past, whenever the city has been hit by incidents such riots or bandhs, IT companies have transferred the day’s work to other locations or worked on a holiday to compensate for the loss of work-time. Early inquiries also reveal that there have been no alarm bells ringing for this industry from overseas clients, especially in the US and Europe, their key markets.

Last Friday, the safety of staff was the top concern for tech firms. Information was shared on internal websites to ensure that all their employees were safe. Some companies paced the departure of staff to avoid traffic jams. The IT firms also stepped up security measures immediately.

The larger ones such as Wipro and Infosys have massive campuses and put all visitors through strict scrutiny even on a normal day. These companies are surrounded by electric fences and armed gunmen guard the entrances. Some even have bomb-detection squads! “Events in the last couple of days have been unfortunate and we have also enhanced our security measures. On work front, there has been no disruption and the great thing being that the city has bounced back to normalcy...it is heartening,” Pratik Kumar, executive VP of HR for Wipro, said.

Another IT industry official who did not want to be named was of the view that it was the duty of the government to provide security even though companies bore the responsibility as far as their own premises were concerned. The general feeling is that government needs to send positive signals that the economic environment will not hampered in any way because of the concerns about security.

 

Friday, July 11, 2008

BANKING, IT TO SEE MUTED SALARY HIKE OF 8-12%

Writankar Mukherjee, Kolkata
The Economic Times (Delhi edition)

At a time when inflation and rising oil prices are pinching hard, there’s some more bad news. The blue-eyed sectors like banking and financial services, IT, BPO, real estate and auto, which usually steal the show in terms of highest salary hikes, are going to significantly cut down on increments this year. HR circles contend professionals in these sectors are likely to see an average salary hike of around 8-12% this year as compared to 15-20% last couple of years.

Here’s the silver lining. Employees in manufacturing, oil and gas, pharma, telecom and FMCG sectors are relatively insulated. HR circles feel these sectors might even outstrip the others in absolute salary growth. Incidentally, India Inc is currently finalising the appraisal process, which takes place between July-September.

“IT/ITeS are affected due to recession in US and loss in cost-arbitrage. However, employees in the high-end BPO industry may be spared. Sectors, which are directly linked to consumer spending and disposable income like auto will suffer,” KPMG India partner and head (human capital practice) Ganesh Shermon said.

“HR heads in several affected sectors have started informal meetings and formed compensation clubs to take stock of the situation, arrive at par increment rates in their industry and look at ways to tackle employee outbursts,” HR firm Ma Foi Management Consultants CEO E Balaji said.

Patni Computer Systems VP and head (global HR) Rajesh Padmanabhan said salary hikes in IT/ITeS industry would be around 9-12%. “The industry growth rate has fallen and everyone is in a cautious mood. As a result, salary increments will be at its low as compared to an average of 15% for the last two to three years,” he said.

While those in the insurance industry will be relatively insulated due to entry of multiple players and talent shortage, increments in banking and financial services will see a slowdown. “Salary hike may fall to as low as 10% in the non-banking finance companies. Inflation and hike in interest rates has hit badly,” Bharti AXA Life’s director (HR) Priya Ranjan said. Hike in the BFSI usually ranges between 14-17%.

“Salaries in the oil and gas sector will grow by 17% compared to 14% last year. The sector is growing at a tremendous pace, a sign of which is the escalating oil prices,” Cairn India’s HR head Shalini Sarin said. Bharti Airtel’s director (HR) Krish Shankar said the telecom industry would go for the usual level of 15-22% hike.

 

Thursday, July 10, 2008

SOFTWARE, SERVICES REVENUE TO GROW AT 21-24% TO $62 BILLION

New Delhi
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India’s software and services revenue is poised to grow between 21 and 24 percent during 2008-09 to touch $62-64 billion. The growth rate projections for FY09 are a tad lower than 28 percent growth achieved in FY08, on account of a possible slowdown in decision-making on new projects and also due the fact that the industry now operates on a much larger base.

Within the FY09 revenue targets, exports are expected to account for $50 billion while the domestic revenue would be close to $13 billion. “While almost 70 percent of the IT spend is on existing projects, about 30 percent is on new projects which is a discretionary spend. The decision-making on new project gets affected in a challenging environment,” Som Mittal, President of Nasscom said at a conference here.

Mittal said that while the US economic slowdown was a concern, the indicators suggest a revival in tech spending during the second half of 2008. “Overall the CIOs expect the tech spending growth in calendar 2008 to be similar to 2007, although the budget allocations will be more back-end loaded in 2008…The expected slowdown in banking and financial services continues, but clients in other sectors like manufacturing and healthcare are indicating a higher growth,” Mittal pointed out.

Software and services exports surged 29 percent during 2007-08 to garner $40.4 billion revenue — overcoming the strong headwinds such as an impending slowdown and a severe financial sector crisis in the US, as well as currency fluctuation — to meet the targets set at the beginning of FY08. The domestic market continued to gain momentum, growing 26 percent to register revenue of $11.6 billion in FY08. This took the overall IT industry revenue — exports and domestic combined — to $52 billion, a growth of over 28 percent compared to the previous year; and the overall IT sector direct headcount touched 2 million professionals.

Within the export segment, geographical diversification and maturity in services and operating efficiencies helped the IT services exports to jump 28 percent to $23.1 billion, while the BPO exports were up 30 percent to $10.9 billion. Engineering services and product exports clocked revenue of $6.4 billion, an increase of almost 29 percent over FY07.

“The last year was difficult, with currency fluctuations and the sub-prime crisis shaking the industry, but the IT sector has shown resilience. Given that we are well on our way to achieve the target of $60 billion in exports by 2009-10, the industry is focusing on improving productivity, efficiency, as well as opening up new markets such as Continental Europe and Japan,” Mittal added. The industry has seen a 33.7 percent CAGR over the last eight years, and would therefore need a 21.9 percent growth to hit the FY10 targets, Nasscom said.

 

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

SENSEX FALLS 39 PERCENT SINCE JAN, BUT 17 BSE 500 FIRMS BUCK TREND

Ashwin Ramarathinam
Mint

Between 10 January, when the Sensex reached its lifetime high of 21,206.77, and 1 July, the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) has fallen about 39 percent. None of the indices of the 133-year-old BSE, Asia’s oldest stock exchange, has gained during this period.

Except, that is, for 17 stocks in the BSE 500, an index of the top 500 Indian firms by market value, that have bucked the trend. This despite the index, which represents nearly 93 percent of the total market capitalization of the exchange, falling more than the Sensex, some 41.6 percent since 10 January.

A Mint analysis of the performance of BSE 500 stocks during this period shows that Kolkata-based REI Agro Ltd, a consumer goods firm, has produced a 41.53 percent return. It would have done even better but for a 4.95 percent dip on Tuesday, when it closed at Rs1,307a share.

Spice Communications Ltd, a telecom service provider, is the second highest gainer, offering a return of 37.16 percent. It closed at Rs72.35 a share on Tuesday.

Two other big gainers are Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd and Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd—both offering at least a 25 percent gain during this period.

Overall, this group of out performers consists of seven pharmaceuticals firms and three firms each in information technology (IT) and consumer products. In addition, there are oil exporting firm Cairn India Ltd, rating agency Crisil Ltd and gelatine making chemical firm Sterling Biotech Ltd.

Analysts are not surprised as pharmaceutical and consumer products firms are traditionally seen as defensive stocks. By definition, a defensive stock is one that tends to remain stable under difficult economic conditions.

Firms dealing with food, tobacco, oil and utilities are often considered to be defensive stocks. They hold up well because demand for such products does not decrease as dramatically as it may in other sectors. However, in a bull market, such stocks tend to lag the rest for the same reason—demand is relatively steady.

The reason behind the rise of IT stocks is the fall in the Indian rupee, which has made substantial declines versus the dollar during this period. Since the bulk of earnings of these IT stocks come from exports, they tend to gain when the local currency weakens as their dollar income goes up when in translated in rupee terms.

While not a single sectoral index of BSE has offered positive returns during this period, the health care index and the IT index have lost the least. The health care index is down merely 1.91 percent and IT index 4.75 percent.

Four indices have lost more than 50 percent. They are real estate (68.23 percent), power (54.11 percent), bankex (53.64 percent) and capital goods (50.45 percent).

All four sectors are interest rate-sensitive and they normally suffer when interest rates go up and liquidity is squeezed in the system.

The Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, has been raising its policy rate and banks’ cash reserve to fight the rising inflation, which is at a 13-year high.

A rising rate dampens the demand for houses and that impacts realty stocks. Banks, too, feel the heat in such a scenario as their loan growth slackens and the value of their bond portfolio depreciates when the rates go up. Meanwhile, both the power and capital goods sectors are capital-intensive and the going gets tough for them when interest rates rise.

 

RE-ENGINEERING BPOS

Sujit John
The Times of India

At the concluding session of Nasscom's BPO Strategy Summit in Bangalore recently, 24/7 Customer's co-founder S Nagarajan made an unusual and passionate plea. He asked the large audience to write letters to newspapers whenever they found articles that portrayed the BPO industry in a negative light. "If you have different experiences from that stated in the articles, you should all write to the editors concerned," he said.

The reference was clearly to articles that have highlighted issues like sex and drugs at the workplace, much of that said to be provoked by the young age of those who work in such jobs, and the fact that most BPO jobs involve working through the night. We won't get into the merits of that here. But the reason Nagarajan was provoked to make that statement was this: He believes those articles are exaggerated, and, more importantly, he believes if there is anything that can put the brakes on the industry's growth, it's people's belief that BPOs aren't 'good' places to work in. Parents will discourage their children from entering the profession. In short, the industry won't get the talent it requires.

That's certainly not good for Nagarajan's firm, and especially now when the industry believes it's at the threshold of super-growth. While most admit that the coming year will see a slowdown on account of what looks like an inevitable recession in the US, the country from where most offshoring work comes, the industry's medium term projections are likely to beat that of most businesses. A study conducted this year by Nasscom and research firm Everest estimates "conservatively" that between 2008 and 2012, the industry will see a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28-30%. But it believes this could go up to as high as 45-50% if supply constraints are eased.

"Supply is the constraint, not demand," says Pramod Bhasin, CEO of one of India's biggest BPO companies Genpact. India, he says, is already creating the biggest pool of business reengineering talent in the world and is fast consolidating its position as the No. 1 BPO destination. So anybody anywhere looking to outsource their non-core areas is likely to look first to Indian BPO companies. In fact, Bhasin would perhaps be unhappy that we continue to use the term BPO to describe his firm. He thinks that given the specialized expertise companies are moving towards, the generic term is no longer meaningful.

Domain expertise

The domain expertise advantage is becoming visible in a number of areas. When Yale-trained radiologist Dr Arjun Kalyanpur and his wife Dr Sunita Maheshwari started a teleradiology venture, Teleradiology Solutions, five years ago in Bangalore, they were looking at it only as a night-hawking arrangement. The idea was just to capture only those emergency/accident scans of patients taken by US and UK hospitals in the nights when duty radiologists are away and sleeping. But today the opportunity has got bigger and better, says Dr Kalyanpur. "We get scans/images from hospitals across the world including parts of Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and across Asia."

Legal process outsourcing firms are taking on increasingly complex work, from patent reviews and patent infringement cases, to due diligence and helping global companies ensure that they comply with regulations in different countries. "We are also doing a lot of 'discovery' work in corporate fraud cases, where we need to find relevant emails from a hard drive with millions of emails in it," says Sanjay Kamlani, co-CEO of Mumbai-based legal process outsourcing firm Pangea. One major reason why so much legal work comes to India is that a lawyer in India starts at a salary of about Rs 2 lakh ($5,000) compared to $165,000 in the US. But Kamlani says Indian companies are marrying law with Six Sigma efficiencies, and ensure a lot of rigour and attention to detail. "We are forcing efficiency in an industry that is not used to it," he says.

Nagarajan's 24/7 Customer focuses on customer life cycle management for clients in verticals like banking, telecom, technology and ecommerce --- analysing what kind of customers to target, helping clients win customers, servicing their technical or customer service needs, analysing customer needs, and helping retain customers. For one client, it supports 40 different point of sales devices. "We analyse data on problems the merchants who use these devices face. We know what kind of devices fail at what point in their lives. So when a merchant calls, our agent knows the top three reasons they might be calling. This enables us to reduce call duration. We can help the client proactively address device issues," he says. And even when it is just voice calls, it needn't be a simple task.

Companies are taking on work that involves, say, negotiating to reduce accident claims, where an agent may have to speak to some seven different people --- including the affected parties and their lawyers --- understand their different accents and reply accordingly.

Nasscom president Som Mittal says that in HR, for instance, Indian companies were doing 11 different processes in 2004, a number that grew to 22 in 2007, an indication of the increasing focus on domain expertise.

Global expansion

Large Indian BPO firms are also increasingly moving overseas, both for talent and to service global customers. "60% of customers require global delivery," says Genpact's Bhasin. "So you have to be in China, Mexico. The days of doing bulk of the work offshore is gone."

Philippines is a favourite destination. Having been a US naval base, the country is culturally and language-wise far closer to the US than India is. "They understand US accents well, and their knowledge about the US too is very good," says Nagarajan who is just setting up its third centre there. "And they take their job extremely seriously, so attrition is low. Costs are a little less, since we don't have to provide transport, no free food, and international telecom charges are 35-40% lower."

Indian BPO companies are setting up bases in many of these locations. Nasscom's Mittal says that between IT and BPO, Indian companies are present in 77 cities in 25 countries. Nagarajan says as much as 40% of his company's delivery will be from outside India.

Within India, the focus is moving to smaller towns. But here, employability and people's perception about the industry are big issues. Nasscom would like to create a new layer in the educational sector to help BPOs. "We can't keep doing training in-house. We need independent schools to teach the kind of things BPOs need," says Mittal. He suggests that since colleges don't typically work after 4pm, these facilities can be used in the evening for BPO training. "The same faculty could teach, but today there are restrictions such as paying extra to the faculty." But given the growing opportunity, the government may see sense in lifting some of these restrictions.

 

GLOBAL MELTDOWN MAY IMPACT PRICING OF LOCAL IT COS

N Shivapriya, Mumbai
The Economic Times

The global credit squeeze and US slowdown are giving rise to fears that Indian IT companies could face pricing pressure. This follows bigger than expected write-offs by some global financial services majors and a continuing recession in the US, which is affecting retail spends.

UBS, which has written off over $35 billion, is said to be looking at a lower IT budget and 8-10 percent cut in pricing, while JP Morgan is reportedly asking for 15-20 percent pricing cuts in return for higher business, according to a recent CLSA survey on pricing.

UBS is among the top clients for Infosys, while JP Morgan is a key client for Cognizant Technology Services. If the pricing cuts happen, then the outlook for the sector, which is already facing a reduced volume of business because of project postponements and delayed decision-making, will worsen further.

The industry is cushioned by the depreciating rupee, most IT companies have assumed a value of Rs 40 to the dollar in their guidance, but the rupee has fallen to Rs 42-43 against the dollar.

When contacted, the top four Indian IT companies, TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Satyam, refused to comment on whether they were facing any pricing pressure because they were in the ‘quiet period’ before the announcement of their quarterly results. Cognizant also said it was unable to comment for the same reason. IBM and Accenture, which have a significant offshore presence in India, did not respond.

“We have not yet come across such a situation. As on today, we are not seeing any pricing pressure,” said Hexaware Technologies chairman Atul Nishar, a medium-sized IT firm with some large global banks as its clients.

“We are clear that we want to maintain our pricing. My sense is the industry will also resist any move to reduce prices because of the uncertainty in the rupee-dollar movement. Pricing will not come down easily, although the industry may witness price reduction in specific cases where the clients are cutting down costs,” he said.

The CLSA survey, done with nine vendors, including the top five Indian IT vendors, says four of the nine respondents expected pricing to be stable and at last year’s levels, while five of them expected pricing to deteriorate slightly, but stay positive. The report says if demand doesn’t pick up soon, pricing may not stand its ground.

Accenture’s third quarter results announced last week, however, belie some of these fears. The multinational consulting and technology services firm posted one of its strongest quarters with a profit growth of 36 percent and announced a higher than estimated fourth quarter guidance.

While Accenture’s business cannot be compared on a like-basis with Indian offshore providers, it indicates that the business environment may perhaps not be as negative.

However, what seems more certain is that software vendors may not be able to manage better billing rates from clients. Last fiscal, software companies were able to get 3-4 percent higher billing rates on new contracts and contracts coming up for renewal.